ชื่อเรื่อง : Spatial epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

ชื่อผู้แต่ง : Dayun Kang, Hyunho Choi, Jong-Hun Kim, Jungsoon Choi

สำนักพิมพ์ : ELSEVIER

เนื้อหาโดยย่อ : Abstract: Background
On December 31, 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, was reported. The outbreak spread rapidly to other Chinese cities and to multiple countries. We describe the spatio-temporal pattern and measure the spatial association of the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China from January 16 to February 6, 2020.
Methods
We explored the spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in mainland China. Moran’s I spatial statistic with various definitions of neighbors was used to conduct a test to determine whether a spatial association of the COVID-19 infections existed.
Results
We observed the spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in China. The results showed that most of the models, except medical-care-based connection models, indicated a significant spatial association of COVID-19 infections from around January 22, 2020.
Conclusions
Spatial analysis is of great help in understanding the spread of infectious diseases, and spatial association is the key to the spatial spread during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China.

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